Anna Child Group
Source: Steven Thomas – Reports on Housing – June 10, 2012
Mr. Thomas points out: “Everybody is talking about how hot distressed homes are in today’s market, but don’t forget about sellers with equity.”
Equity Sellers: Sellers with equity made up 63% of all sales in May.
Everybody is always talking about foreclosure and short sales. It is time to divert the focus and take a much closer look at the “equity seller.” Sellers that have equity in their homes are typically not distressed properties, so they of course receive much less fanfare. This segment of the Orange County housing market represents 63% of sales in May 2012 and 62% of all home sales in 2011. 58% of current demand, new pending sales over the prior month, and 82% of the active inventory are equity sellers. Granted, foreclosures and short sales are hot, with expected market times of less than a month. But, the expected market time for equity sellers is a little over two months. Compared to the distressed market, it sounds a little sluggish. That simply is not the case. Last year in June, the expected market time was just under five months. This is simply the best time since 2005 for homeowners with equity in their home to sell. This is a seller’s market, below five months. The lower the expected market time, the hotter the market. At about two months, homes that are priced right, at or near their fair market values, will fly off the market like popcorn at a movie theatre.
OC Active Listing Inventory June 2012
Active Listings: Huntington Beach Market Time below 2 months.
As of June 7th, the Huntington Beach active inventory was 384 homes with 224 homes sold in the previous 30 days which results in a “Market Time” of 1.71 months to sell all homes currently listed. This compares to 1.66 months two weeks ago, 1.68 months four weeks ago, 3.63 moths a year ago, and 4.04 months two years ago.
Active Listings: The Orange County listing inventory dropped another 2% in the past couple of weeks.
The descent in the active listing inventory has slowed considerably, but it is still dropping. The listing inventory shed 96 homes in two weeks and now totals 5,731. The last time the inventory was this low was exactly seven years ago, June of 2005. The inventory has continuously dropped since June of last year, a 50% decline. Last year at this time there were 11,337 homes on the market. With such a drastically reduced inventory and strong demand, the expected market time for all of Orange County is at 47 days.
Demand: Demand did not change much in the past two weeks.
Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, is continuing to follow a normal, cyclical pattern. It typically remains at current levels through June, drops a bit in July with the many summer distractions, and then picks up again in August. In the past couple of weeks, demand dropped by 14 homes and now totals 3,687. It is 19% stronger than a year ago and 16% stronger than two years ago.
The Distressed Market: The distressed inventory represents only 18% of the current active inventory.
In Orange County, the active distressed inventory, both short sales and foreclosures combined, continued to drop, shedding an additional 68 homes, or 6%. This segment of the housing market is by far the hottest, representing only 18% of the active inventory but 42% of all pending activity. Thus far in 2012, the distressed inventory has shed 2,121 homes, an amazing 67% drop. In the past two weeks, the foreclosure inventory increased by only 2 homes and has an expected market time of 19 days. The short sale inventory decreased by 70 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 842. The expected market time is 21 days. Yes, short sales may take a very long time to put together with the coordination of the lender(s) approval, the removal of HOA and/or tax liens, and bringing property taxes current. With so few homes on the market, short sales are being swept up almost as fast as the foreclosure market.
For questions about buying and selling real estate in Orange County, contact Scot Campbell. He is the President of The Scot Campbell TEAM at Coldwell Banker-Campbell Realtors in Huntington Beach, CA. He has been a licensed broker for over 21 years and has brokered over 1000 homes and just about every type of transaction imaginable. Read his profile and client reviews at www.ScotCampbell.com He can be reached at 714-960-0700 at the office, 714-336-0394 on his mobile number or via email at Scot.Campbell@ColdwellBanker.com
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